The updated outlooks were produced considering the Week 1 forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), and CPC’s own Week 2 and Week 3-4 outlooks. More details about interpreting the outlooks can be found here. Also, remember that the colors on the temperature and precipitation outlook maps only provide information about the most likely outcome, but other outcomes are still possible, although less likely to occur. I’ll also examine the current state of drought, how it changed during the prior month and winter, and how CPC expects drought to change during March. For more details on how to interpret these maps, read our explainer Understanding NOAA's monthly climate outlooks.īelow, I’ll provide more detail about the outlooks and discuss the basis for them. Much higher or much lower than average means "in the upper or lower third" of March precipitation amounts from 1991-2020. White areas mean that there are equal chances for a wet, dry, or near-average March. Darker colors mean higher chances, not more extreme precipitation departures. The precipitation outlook for March 2024, showing where the average precipitation (rain and snow) is favored to be much higher than average (greens), near average (gray), or much lower than average (browns).
The precipitation outlook favors well above average precipitation (rain and/or snow) across large parts of the western, central, and eastern parts of the country, with well below average precipitation only favored in small parts of the Upper Midwest and Southern Plains. The temperature outlook favors well above normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern parts of the nation, with well below average temperatures favored in California and parts of the Southwest. On February 29, CPC released its updated monthly climate outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought across the United States for March 2024. For more details on how to interpret these maps, read our explainer Understanding NOAA's monthly climate outlooks. Much warmer or much cooler than average means "in the upper or lower third" of March temperatures from 1991-2020. White areas mean that there are equal chances for a warm, cool, or near-average March. Darker colors mean higher chances, not more extreme temperatures. If the radar animation of the last hours shows local thunderstorms or precipitation cells forming and disappearing in an irregular manner, then the forecast is not vey accurate.The temperature outlook for March 2024, showing where the average temperature is favored to be much warmer than average (orange and red), near average (gray), or much cooler than average (blues). The forecast works very well when weather fronts or large organized precipitation structures are moving regularly, without disappearing or being created. Real weather is more complex than just the displacement of existing precipitation cells. Longer forecasts are not possible, as new precipitation cells are developing or existing ones are disappearing within a short time. This so called precipitation nowcast is the most accurate precipitation forecast possible but the forecast horizon is limited to about an hour. The rain/snow forecast is computed by estimating the movement of precipitation cells observed by radar and extrapolating this movement into the future. United States: How accurate is the radar based forecast? Moreover, some countries do not operate a weather radar network, and in those countries satellite data is used to estimate rainfall, which is less accurate than a realtime weather radar. Note that lightning is not shown on the forecast, as it cannot be predicted.
Light blue indicates drizzle, blue a medium intensity, and red and yellow indicate very strong precipitation, usually associated with thunderstorms.Ĭurrent lightning strikes are marked with small orange dots on the map (Europe only).
The different colours indicate the intensity of rainfall or snowfall. The radar map is updated every 5 minutes with a new radar observation. The weather radar ( United States) shows where it is currently raining or snowing.